CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2017-05-23T06:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-05-23T06:00Z
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-05-27T14:47Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-05-26T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note: 
:Issued: 2017 May 24 1324 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Slow partial halo CME, with projected speed of about 192 km/s and angular
width of about 122 degree, was detected by CACTUS at 05:24 UT on
23-May-2017. The CME first seen as the clear large-scale dimming at EUV
solar disk images (PROBA2/SWAP and SDO/AIA) is associated with an eruption
near solar disk centre. WSA-ENLIL model indicates the possible CME arrival
at Earth around noon on 26-May-2017. Active geomagnetic conditions may be
expected, with an isolated episode of a minor storm.
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224                                           #
# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491                                           #
#                                                                    #
# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be.  Please do not reply #
# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to     #
# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use      #
# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead.                                   #
# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php        #
#                                                                    #
# Legal notices:                                                     #
# - Intellectual Property Rights:                                    #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf    #
# - Liability Disclaimer:                                            #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf     #
# - Use and processing of your personal information:                 #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Lead Time: 73.38 hour(s)
Difference: 26.78 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) on 2017-05-24T13:24Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy